If you’ve noticed it’s harder to find certain cuts of beef at your local grocery store—or prices just seem steeper all around—you’re not imagining things. The U.S. has been dealing with ongoing meat shortages that didn’t just show up overnight. They’ve been building for years, and 2024 is proving things aren’t back to normal yet.
Let’s break down why this is happening and why meat might stay expensive and sometimes hard to find, at least for a while.
How COVID-19 Shook Up the Meat Supply Chain
The problems really started getting attention during the early pandemic years. When COVID-19 hit, all those crowded meat packing plants quickly became hotspots for outbreaks. This led to sudden closures at some of the biggest plants.
Before that, most people probably didn’t think twice about how their burgers or chicken breasts got from farm to table. But when the plants closed down, farmers couldn’t get their animals processed. That meant less meat overall, even as demand started spiking with people cooking at home more.
Workers got sick or stayed home. Then, new safety rules slowed the lines down even more. Some plants had to limit how many people could work at once, which meant fewer animals processed each day.
With fewer workers and reduced production, stores suddenly couldn’t get enough product. Many major grocery chains—maybe even your regular supermarket—put limits on how much beef or pork each customer could buy.
Those limits might have seemed temporary, but the supply chain never fully snapped back after the first big disruption. Even as plants reopened, labor shortages stuck around for months, then years. Some of this was related to illness and safety concerns, but there were also big changes in the labor market itself.
The State of the Meat Industry in 2024
Fast forward to this year and the shortages are still very real, especially if you’re looking for beef. Producers up and down the chain are dealing with a tough situation that’s partly out of their control.
The biggest issue? Ranchers have had to shrink their herds. Persistent droughts in key cattle states have left grazing land dried out and feed more expensive than ever. When there’s not enough low-cost grass, ranchers have to buy feed—and the price of that hasn’t let up.
It costs a lot more to keep cattle healthy and growing right now than it did just five years ago. Many ranchers made the difficult decision late last year and early this year to send more cows to slaughter earlier, instead of breeding them for future stock. That means there are fewer calves being born, and less beef will be available for the next several years.
It’s not just the price of feed, either. The cost of just about everything you need to raise animals—fuel, electricity, trucking, fertilizer—has gone up. Labor is another big cost. It’s harder and more expensive to find people willing to do the tough work at every step, from the pasture to the packing plant.
That’s how you end up standing at the meat counter, seeing higher prices, or less selection—sometimes both.
Production Costs Keep Climbing
The numbers tell the story. Feed makes up a huge slice of the cost to raise beef, pork, or even chicken. Costs for corn and soybeans—the main ingredients of livestock feed—climbed during the supply chain crunch, and they’ve stayed elevated because of global grain market instability.
Inflation isn’t just a headline for the broader economy; it’s hitting ranchers and meatpackers directly. Fuel for tractors and trucks, the cost of animal healthcare, buying equipment, paying workers—each of these factors chips away at profit margins.
Many smaller operations, especially in the Midwest and West, are feeling the pinch the hardest. Some families who’ve run cattle for generations are either scaling back or thinking about getting out of the business. That reduces supply even further.
Environmental and Climate Pressures Are Here to Stay
The weather never used to be quite such a wild card, but in recent years, droughts have become almost routine in big cattle-producing areas like Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Water shortages mean that some pastures can’t support herds the way they used to, and moving animals or trucking in water can be costly.
Heat waves also make it harder to keep livestock healthy. In some areas, cows graze less or don’t gain as much weight, so fewer reach market weight on schedule. All this adds up to less beef on the market.
Meanwhile, climate change is forcing producers to rethink the future. Ranchers are getting pressure to find more sustainable ways to raise cattle, partly as a response to mounting concerns about greenhouse gas emissions from livestock. While these changes may help the environment in the long run, they often mean new costs for producers, at least in the short term.
Long-Term Weak Spots Exposed by the Pandemic
COVID-19 revealed how closely everything in the meat system is connected—and how fragile it can be. A few plant closures didn’t just affect a single county. They had ripple effects across the nation.
For years, the U.S. meat industry moved toward consolidation, with a handful of huge companies controlling most of the processing plants. That strategy worked for keeping costs low, but it turned out to be risky during big disruptions. One closure suddenly slowed down the whole system, not just for beef and pork, but poultry too.
The old supply chain model, where every step depended on the step before going perfectly, suddenly broke down. Maybe you remember headlines about millions of chickens being culled or pigs being euthanized because there was nowhere to process them.
Those problems made industry leaders and policymakers start talking seriously about the risks of concentration. There have been calls for more, smaller local processors, but it takes time and money to set those up. So for now, the main system stays pretty much the same.
Transportation and Logistics Throw More Curveballs
Even if a plant has enough workers and beef to process, the product still has to get from the plant to your store. Transportation has been another headache.
Truck driver shortages have picked up steam over the past few years. Meat is perishable, so delivery windows are tight. If a truck gets delayed—because of traffic, weather, or just not enough drivers—there’s less margin for error than shipping, say, canned beans.
Fuel prices are unpredictable, too, and that’s been passed on down the chain. Everything costs more to move, so prices climb by the time products reach your favorite grocer or local butcher.
Trade Twists Affect What’s On the Shelves
There’s one more twist in the story—international trade. You might have thought with all the shortages, most U.S. meat would stay at home. That’s not really how it’s gone, though.
During the crunch, the industry kept up—and sometimes even boosted—meat exports to countries like China. U.S. pork, in particular, saw record sales abroad, even while domestic supplies were stretched.
Why? Overseas deals can be more lucrative, and companies want to maximize profits wherever they can. But it did raise some fair questions about why Americans were paying more for less product at home while exports boomed abroad.
Trade policies tend to be complicated and slow-moving, but it’s a piece of the puzzle anytime we talk about supply and price issues.
If you want more discussion on how business and trade interact in the food industry, check out coverage at Daily Business Voice.
How Grocers and Shoppers Are Adapting
Supermarkets have responded in different ways. During the worst of COVID-19, you might recall strict purchase limits. Even now, some stores are quietly reducing their range of cuts—sticking to basics rather than offering multiple specialty options.
Some places are promoting alternative proteins, like chicken or plant-based meat, when beef prices go up. Shoppers have also adapted. Some are choosing less expensive cuts, opting for ground beef over steak, or skipping certain meats altogether for a few meals a week.
But it’s not really about return to normal yet. Old habits and expectations about unlimited, cheap meat are fading a bit, out of necessity as much as choice.
Looking Forward—Meat Shortages Are a Long Game
At this point, most folks in the industry expect the meat supply situation to stay tight well into 2025 and, possibly, beyond. Restocking cattle herds takes years, not months. The effects of drought and high feed prices play out long after the latest storm passes.
If there’s anything the past few years have taught us, it’s that these issues don’t exist in isolation. Labor, weather, economics, and global business all pull on the same thread, and when one tug gets too strong, the whole system feels it.
For now, both the meat industry and consumers are adjusting—maybe by trying out new recipes or getting more thoughtful about what goes in the shopping cart. Long-term fixes, from more resilient supply chains to sustainable cattle practices, will take time and persistence.
But for shoppers just looking for tonight’s dinner, that probably just means learning to be flexible and occasionally looking for beef in a different section—or at a different price—than before.
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