If you’ve noticed smaller turkey sections at your local grocery store or higher prices for Thanksgiving, you’re not alone. Across the United States, we’re caught in a turkey shortage. It’s not just a 2024 thing, either—experts say we could feel the effects well into 2025. Here’s a simple look at what’s happened, why it’s gone on this long, and what you should expect if you’re planning a turkey dinner in the next year or so.
How Did We Get Here? Turkey Numbers Take a Dive
To understand this problem, you have to start at the very beginning—literally, the egg. In June 2024, hatcheries reported just 22.8 million turkey eggs sitting in incubators. That’s the lowest the country has seen since 1988. Fewer eggs means fewer poults—the industry’s word for newly hatched turkeys headed for dinner plates.
Year-over-year, poult placements in June 2024 dropped a whopping 18%. That’s a sharp decline, the kind that gets noticed in grocery cases fast. Even when numbers started to look better in July and August, they were still almost 10% below last year’s pace. So the pipeline for new turkeys hasn’t quite bounced back.
Some folks wonder if this is just about bad luck or unpredictable disease, but that’s only part of the picture. It’s a mix of problems—some that hit out of the blue, others that seem more like tough calls made in boardrooms.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Packs a Punch
The big headline in turkey farming over the past few years has been bird flu, more officially called Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, or HPAI for short. This isn’t your basic cold or mild livestock bug. When a flock gets hit, the farms often have to put down every single bird to stop the spread. It’s grim, but experts say it’s necessary.
In 2024, HPAI struck breeding flocks, which means it took out not just turkeys meant for sale, but also those needed to produce the next generation of turkeys. So, you lose birds now and limit your future supply at the same time. HPAI doesn’t care if Thanksgiving is coming.
But the drop in eggs and poults isn’t just about bird flu. Industry insiders admit a lot comes down to decisions made by turkey companies. Facing high feed costs, processing headaches, and continued disease risk, many decided to scale back production. So even when HPAI wasn’t around, companies held off on refilling farms. This leads to another layer of the shortage.
Troubles Along the Turkey Supply Chain
It’s not just about raising turkeys. Getting that bird from farm to oven has become a problem too. Processors—these are the companies who slaughter and prepare the turkeys for sale—have faced their own challenges. They’re running short on everything from spare parts for machines to the raw materials needed for packaging. Some of this stems from global shipping issues that haven’t smoothed out since the pandemic.
All these issues add up. In mid-2024, slaughter figures for turkeys fell to record lows, and it wasn’t just whole birds that disappeared. Speciality cuts—the kind favored by some restaurants and food companies—are especially scarce.
Competition in the marketplace has also shifted. Some processors fight over domestic sales, offering better prices to stores that buy volume. Others, if they can, try to export turkeys overseas for higher profits. This sometimes leaves the U.S. market in a bind.
What Shoppers See: A Different Turkey Experience
People shopping for turkeys right now have probably noticed their choices look different. Fresh turkeys, the kind most folks prefer for holiday meals, are particularly hard to find. This isn’t likely to improve as we approach Thanksgiving and other winter holidays. Fewer birds have been raised and processed lately, so there’s simply not as much fresh product to sell.
Frozen turkeys, though, have popped up in somewhat larger numbers. By the end of June 2024, frozen turkey inventory was reportedly up 16% compared to a year earlier. This might help fill some holiday tables, but even so, the selection might be thinner than in years past.
If you’re planning to buy a turkey last-minute or insist on a certain size or brand, it’s probably a good year to plan ahead or think about frozen options. Specialty cuts could be even trickier to find, so if you’ve got a favorite turkey sausage or breast deli meat, you may have to shop around.
Rising Prices and Unpredictable Markets
Shortages usually mean one thing: higher prices. Right now, that’s true for most turkey products, especially frozen whole birds and specialized cuts. Prices may not always go straight up or down, but you’ll see more swings from week to week than normal.
There’s one more twist: when HPAI or other hurdles block U.S. exports, some producers shift their turkeys back into the American market. It seems like this could lower prices, but with production so tight, it mostly adds to the “who gets what” scramble.
A Surprising Ally: Turkey Sends Eggs to America
In a move that sounds like the start of a joke but isn’t, the country of Turkey has begun exporting eggs to the U.S. It might seem strange, but with American breeders struggling to ramp up due to bird flu and supply chain hurdles, these imports offer some relief.
Egg imports are a patch, though, not a solution. They might keep a few more baby turkeys hatching here, but there’s still a lag before these birds make it to stores. And the overall numbers are still down—Turkey’s eggs won’t come close to replacing millions of lost U.S. poults overnight.
Pacing Recovery: What Production Signs Tell Us
The USDA’s projections for 2024 tell the story: turkey production is expected to come in around 5.4 billion pounds. That’s tight as far as national supply goes and means we’re stuck in catch-up mode.
The industry isn’t ready to ramp back up at full speed. Even as some problems ease—maybe less HPAI, or better access to ingredients—companies are cautious. Memories of losses, costs, and risks weigh heavy. So, it’s going to take another year or so before fresh and specialty turkeys return to those pre-pandemic or pre-bird flu levels.
Summary Table: See the Main Factors at a Glance
Here’s a quick look at the big issues affecting turkeys in 2024 and 2025.
| Factor | Impact | 2024/2025 Outlook |
|———————————|—————————————————-|————————————|
| Reduced Egg Incubation/Poults | Fewer marketable birds, especially fresh turkeys | Lower fresh bird availability |
| HPAI Outbreaks | Flock losses, export restrictions, price volatility| Ongoing disease risk |
| Processing/Supply Chain Issues | Record-low slaughter figures, part shortages | Persistent scarcity in some cuts |
| Frozen Turkey Inventory | Higher than last year | May ease some holiday shortages |
| Imports (Eggs from Turkey) | Partial relief from supply gaps | Supplement, not replacement |
What to Expect at the Store and on Your Table
People have asked if this means Thanksgiving or winter holidays are cancelled. Definitely not. But even folks who only buy turkey once a year have seen slim pickings or sticker shock.
The uptick in frozen inventory means most people will still score a turkey—if they buy on time and show some flexibility. If you count on a specific fresh turkey, a rare cut, or something free-range, it’s smart to shop early, call ahead, or buddy up with a local butcher.
Some grocers are watching for deals and even cutting their own profits to help regulars. Others are up front: selection is limited, prices are bouncy, and nothing’s guaranteed. If you want to see how some food retailers are adapting and what they’re saying about 2024 shortages, check updates at sites like Daily Business Voice.
A Few Steps Forward, But Patience Needed
Producers are hoping that with fewer disease outbreaks and a bit more confidence, numbers will improve in the second half of 2025. Even if there’s no repeat of the worst bird flu years, getting from egg to table takes time.
Meanwhile, frozen stocks and imports offer a cushion. But with costs staying up and processing still tricky, a full-on comeback for fresh and specialty birds is going to be slow.
No one’s predicting the return of dollar turkeys or overstocked supermarket freezers any time soon. But as producers and shoppers adjust, we’ll probably see a gradual, steady improvement with each passing season.
So if a turkey is key to your holiday plans, plan ahead, shop early, and keep an eye out for what’s in stock. That way, your main worry will stay about how to cook it best—not whether you’ll find one at all.
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